The other day I was chatting to a parent at the school gates. She was in her gym gear, clearly focused on her health. Casually, she mentioned she was on weight-loss medication and currently consuming just 400 calories a day. She looked fantastic and was clearly taking care of herself.
But it got me thinking: from a business perspective, what does this mean for food retail?
So I started digging.
It turns out she’s not alone. Drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro, known as GLP-1 receptor agonists, have shot to prominence. These medications reduce appetite by slowing gastric emptying and changing how the brain registers hunger. Users tend to eat significantly less. In fact, clinical studies show an average reduction of 16–39% off their daily calories.
And while that 400-calorie figure is an extreme outlier (not typical or advisable outside medical supervision), even small reductions at scale could make a meaningful difference. What happens when millions of consumers are buying, cooking, and eating less?
Understanding how consumer sentiment is shifting is going to be key to success. But this change isn’t just a challenge for supermarkets. It has implications for discount grocers, food suppliers, QSR brands and anyone operating in the consumer food ecosystem.
To explore this further, I spoke to colleagues across Redgrave’s Consumer team: Dan Rymer, who leads our global QSR and restaurants practice, Malcolm Devine, Food & Drink lead, and Chris Hatcher, who heads up FMCG. They’ve all been in active conversation with industry leaders about the impact and how to plan for the next five years.
A commercial challenge wrapped in a public health shift
There’s no doubt the rise of GLP-1 drugs could be a net positive for public health: lower obesity rates, fewer weight-related conditions. But it poses a commercial challenge for the food sector. How you respond, and adapt, when consumption starts to decline?
Consumers on appetite-suppressing medications are becoming more selective. If you’re only consuming 400 to 800 calories a day, every bite matters. That changes how people approach food choices, likely leading to a tilt away from ultra-processed, high-calorie foods and toward functional, nutrient-rich alternatives. It may also drive premiumisation: fewer purchases, but higher value. The implications span product development, pricing strategies, category planning, and messaging.
Is your business ready? Are your teams equipped to respond? Are you building the capabilities now to navigate a fundamentally different consumer mindset?
Who’s actually on these drugs?
While adoption is rising fast, it’s still only a small slice of the population. Originally developed to manage Type 2 diabetes, these drugs are now widely sought for their appetite-suppressing effects.
In the US, prescriptions for GLP-1s medication jumped from just 0.3% of adults in 2019 to over 2% in 2024, a near-600% increase. In the UK, more than 1.5 million people have sourced weight-loss injections, mostly through private channels. However, its’ expected that 220,000 patients across the UK will be eligible for the injection via the NHS.
And momentum continues. Some surveys suggest up to 10% of Americans could be using GLP-1s in the near future, especially as awareness increases, access improves, and cultural norms around weight and wellness continue to shift.
What does this mean for grocery sales?
What happens when millions of consumers start eating less? One survey of food-system spending suggests that if just 10% of overweight adults, and 20% of those with obesity, used GLP-1s, total caloric demand could dip by roughly 3%. That equates to 20 billion fewer calories consumed per day in the U.S, or roughly $1.2 billion less spent on groceries each week.
Even at today’s 2% adoption rate, the effect is modest. And it’s accelerating. A survey by PWC found that 8–10% of Americans are currently taking GLP-1s, while as many as 30% to 35% are interested in using them. In a sector where slim margins meet fierce competition, even small reductions in per-person food consumption can quickly add up.
Seasonal peaks may soften
Big food moments have long been reliable revenue drivers for grocery retailers. These events typically spark spikes in consumer behaviour, specifically around indulgent purchases. But early signs suggest these drugs could be subtly reshaping how, when, and why people indulge.
- Christmas: UK supermarkets pulled in a record-breaking £13.8 billion in take-home grocery sales over December 2024. If GLP-1 users curb their indulgence on mince pies or festive chocolates, confectionery and premium treats could see a mild slowdown, particularly in the weeks leading up to this day.
- Easter: Even with chocolate egg prices up 14.1%, Easter still drove a rise in grocery sales in the four weeks to 20th April, 2025, nearly £9.2 billion in spending, up 4.9% year-on-year. But as more shoppers adopt appetite-suppressing therapies, the rate of growth in confectionery, baking ingredients and celebratory meal kits could also soften compared to past years.
What should food businesses be doing now?
This shift in behaviour will require a strategic reset. Food businesses will need to think differently, and in many cases, build new capabilities at the leadership level. Future-fit teams will still need strong commercial acumen, but they’ll also require deeper consumer insight, greater health and nutrition literacy, and a sharper focus on innovation. Here are some key areas leadership teams should be considering:
01
Product mix and pack size
- Shift some focus from supersised, share-the-world tubs to single-serve, lower-calorie options.
- Emphasise high-protein meals, ready-to-heat bowls and GLP-1-friendly snack lines.
02
Promotions and loyalty
- Re-engineer loyalty offers to reward healthy, nutrient-dense purchases, such as protein bars, nuts, veg-based snacks, not just for pure indulgence.
- Partner with health or weight-management services for co-branded coupons or meal-plan bundles.
03
Data and forecasting
- Integrate prescription and healthcare-usage data (in compliance with privacy laws) into demand-planning models to detect early adoption trends by region or demographic.
- Scenario-plan for 5%, 10%, even 20% adoption rates to stress-test holiday inventory and promotions.
04
Innovation and diversification
- Explore adjacencies: functional beverages, gut-health supplements, fortified meal replacements.
- Consider partnerships with pharma or nutrition-tech start-ups to co-develop products tailored to this growing cohort.
Mind the human side
This isn’t just a supply chain story. It’s about health journeys, body image, and access to care. Business leaders and marketers must tread carefully:
- Speak respectfully about weight and health. Avoid stereotypes and “fat-shaming.”
- Design inclusive products, for GLP-1 users, yes, but also for families, older adults, diabetics, and anyone pursuing balanced nutrition.
- Acknowledge disparity. Access to these drugs is often limited to those who can afford private care. That shapes both purchasing power and emotional relationships with food.
If calorie consumption continues to drop, it’s going to shift what we eat, how we shop, and how food businesses grow.
Are you building the right, future-ready team to respond?
