Despite the continued geopolitical unrest, the global economy proved to be more resilient in 2025 than many pundits had feared. In the UK, despite inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target, the Bank of England justified four interest rate cuts.

It’s clear, however, that the global economy will remain fragile in 2026, with rising imperialism creating more instability and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicting growth to fall from 3.2% to 2.9%. Potential deflation of the ‘AI investment bubble’ has been cited as a major risk, which would precipitate stock market crashes around the globe. UK markets anticipate one further cut in interest rates in the first half of the year, but the mood music is that the level of uncertainty means that making too many longer-term predictions is difficult. One thing we can predict is that, in 2026, CEOs across financial services will continue to be kept on their toes.

The world is shifting faster than many leaders can process, but sitting-on-your hands, pulling back from strategic direction, demanding more ‘perfect’ data and waiting for total clarity are becoming increasingly unacceptable. The CEOs who thrive will be those able to pause, think and act strategically, not just reactively or performatively – and do so swiftly.

While the ability to think strategically is crucial, the ‘culture eats strategy for breakfast’ trope also hold true. Developing a strong culture that drives performance will be essential for strategic success. As a result, we’re already seeing a higher proportion of the businesses making leadership appointments invest in psychometric assessment with a view to attracting talented leaders with the competence, adaptability and cultural alignment for tomorrow, as well as today.

We anticipate that Boards will continue to have a preference for proven strategic leadership and operational experience across multidisciplinary teams. Therefore, we don’t expect a profound increase in CEOs being promoted from CFO over the coming 12 months.

In recently years, private equity investors have concentrated their activities in financial services on capital light segments, such as payments, advice-driven wealth management and SME insurance brokerage, and bulk purchase annuities. UK M&A activity in 2025 showed ‘resilience with cautious optimism’, led largely by corporates such as Aviva, Ageas and Santander. However, there was some evidence that PE investors risk appetite is broadening. While there might not be a wholesale re-entry into the acquisition of lending-based businesses, underwriters or life insurers, we expect 2026 will see a more dynamic market for PE-sponsored M&A in financial services.

To sum up, due to an increase in the demands placed upon CEOs and in M&A activity, we expect that 2026 will likely evidence an above average rate of CEO change.